It's not the Black Death
Mar. 13th, 2020 05:20 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
qatsiBy chance, I've had two weeks away from work, as I finished one job at the end of February and start the new one on Monday. Some good things have happened - the fence damaged in Storm Dennis has been repaired, and the pump has been adjusted for the heating, which should prevent it overflowing.
But on the whole I could have done without the stream of covid-19 news. I'm in good health, so far as I know, and although it would be unpleasant to catch it, there is little likelihood of it being more serious; but R has asthma, and is therefore more concerned. I fear there has been an anxiety feedback loop between us, and although optimistically I've bought a monthly season ticket, now I've found out I will have to take several tube trips on Monday, going back and forth between offices.
The various medieval plagues had an estimated mortality rate of around 80-100% and even with modern medicine it's estimated to be 11%. For covid-19 it's probably less than the raw 3% figure derived from the number of known cases: both because there are likely untested cases with mild symptons, and because lung health in Wuhan is poor. All reported deaths in the UK so far are of elderly patients, with underlying medical conditions; of course that's of no comfort to those affected.
The UK government is, for now, following a contrarian approach to that of most other countries. It seems to me that it's a scientifically plausible approach; but the baseline in recent memory for the government handling major incidents of this type is the foot-and-mouth epidemic of 2001, in which a somewhat more competent government nonetheless produced less than stellar results for a moderately harmful disease in animals. The strategy this time is high risk and, even if it does produce herd immunity, the government will be blamed for the casualties. A particular danger of going it alone in this way is that the strategy might work intrinsically, yet still be defeated because other countries taking more hard-line measures induce faster mutations of the virus. Never mind the Yes Minister clip that has (ahem) gone viral, some might go so far as to describe the policy as "bold and imaginative". At least I won't have to navigate the US health system.
But on the whole I could have done without the stream of covid-19 news. I'm in good health, so far as I know, and although it would be unpleasant to catch it, there is little likelihood of it being more serious; but R has asthma, and is therefore more concerned. I fear there has been an anxiety feedback loop between us, and although optimistically I've bought a monthly season ticket, now I've found out I will have to take several tube trips on Monday, going back and forth between offices.
The various medieval plagues had an estimated mortality rate of around 80-100% and even with modern medicine it's estimated to be 11%. For covid-19 it's probably less than the raw 3% figure derived from the number of known cases: both because there are likely untested cases with mild symptons, and because lung health in Wuhan is poor. All reported deaths in the UK so far are of elderly patients, with underlying medical conditions; of course that's of no comfort to those affected.
The UK government is, for now, following a contrarian approach to that of most other countries. It seems to me that it's a scientifically plausible approach; but the baseline in recent memory for the government handling major incidents of this type is the foot-and-mouth epidemic of 2001, in which a somewhat more competent government nonetheless produced less than stellar results for a moderately harmful disease in animals. The strategy this time is high risk and, even if it does produce herd immunity, the government will be blamed for the casualties. A particular danger of going it alone in this way is that the strategy might work intrinsically, yet still be defeated because other countries taking more hard-line measures induce faster mutations of the virus. Never mind the Yes Minister clip that has (ahem) gone viral, some might go so far as to describe the policy as "bold and imaginative". At least I won't have to navigate the US health system.