B*llocks to Brexit
Jun. 2nd, 2019 03:17 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
qatsiI think it's fair to say the EU election results were better than I'd feared. It is, of course, difficult to draw a clear conclusion from the results on the Remain/Leave debate; hand-waving arguments allow both sides to claim victory. I think we can assume that 9% for the Conservatives indicates the level of support for Theresa May's deal and that 14% for Labour is a representation of the true Corbynistas. Yes, it was a good result for the Brexit party, but not that good; they did little better than UKIP in 2014. It was a good result for the Lib Dems and Greens - something that Laura Kuenssberg seemed quite unprepared for in the BBC's results programme - and an unambiguously bad result for Change UK. When they began, I'd have liked them to have done better, but Change UK have made such a mess of things on so many occasions that they desperately need to get themselves a party machine, or merge or form pacts with other parties, and whilst there's an obvious subjectivity to the interpretation, I think Change UK cost the Lib Dems a seat in Wales, to the advantage of the Brexit Party.
The polls continue to have wide variations, and supporters of a given view will point to the recent poll most favourable to that view; of course I particularly liked the YouGov poll putting the Lib Dems in first place, but even then, predictions show the largest number of seats go to Labour, in third position. (The modelling clearly struggles to reflect reality, because it's unlikely the Brexit Party would contest all seats, and it's difficult to imagine them running a hard enough campaign to split votes and unseat Brexiteers such as John Redwood). It's starting to look like a battle between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, if you insist on a two-horse race, or more likely a 4-5 party system (with almost all Green votes being wasted under the current system). The case for electoral reform speaks for itself.
I went to the Lib Dem leadership hustings in Winchester yesterday, as I didn't feel I knew enough about Ed Davey or Jo Swinson to make an informed choice. Though there was some visible active campaigning on behalf of both candidates, the event was a measured and courteous session.
It's not an easy decision; I left feeling that either candidate would do. It's not simply a question of appealing to party members, but of appealing to the wider electorate. It may not be the central measure, but, especially if the polls move further in the Lib Dems' favour, there is a possibility the leader will become Prime Minister, which is not something the Lib Dems have really had to consider in living memory.
The polls continue to have wide variations, and supporters of a given view will point to the recent poll most favourable to that view; of course I particularly liked the YouGov poll putting the Lib Dems in first place, but even then, predictions show the largest number of seats go to Labour, in third position. (The modelling clearly struggles to reflect reality, because it's unlikely the Brexit Party would contest all seats, and it's difficult to imagine them running a hard enough campaign to split votes and unseat Brexiteers such as John Redwood). It's starting to look like a battle between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, if you insist on a two-horse race, or more likely a 4-5 party system (with almost all Green votes being wasted under the current system). The case for electoral reform speaks for itself.
I went to the Lib Dem leadership hustings in Winchester yesterday, as I didn't feel I knew enough about Ed Davey or Jo Swinson to make an informed choice. Though there was some visible active campaigning on behalf of both candidates, the event was a measured and courteous session.
- Davey talked more about policy specifics and delivery; Swinson was more focused on personality
- Swinson was able to point to a significant media profile
- Davey seemed to have a more combative style
- Davey mentioned LGBT issues a couple of times, Swinson never mentioned them
- Neither is interested in a coalition (for now); Swinson was perhaps more open to electoral pacts
- Davey was strong on tackling climate change and also highlighted the Greens' far-left economic policies
- Davey pointed to the failures of our housing system but seemed to have muddled proposals for solving it
It's not an easy decision; I left feeling that either candidate would do. It's not simply a question of appealing to party members, but of appealing to the wider electorate. It may not be the central measure, but, especially if the polls move further in the Lib Dems' favour, there is a possibility the leader will become Prime Minister, which is not something the Lib Dems have really had to consider in living memory.