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Thank you, F U
It was inconceivable that the Tories would lose North Shropshire, but equally, surely it was inconceivable that they would receive any electoral endorsement. Whilst it's always the case strictly that you vote for an individual, there was no way it would not be a referendum of sorts, a probe into the state of the nation. As the media have pointed out, an unforced Johnson error - he could have let Paterson sit out his suspension in peace and quiet, and not much more would have been made of it. But no, Johnson wanted to adjust the rules, to bend them for himself and his chums, as he has done forever. It's a skill that can be put to good use in writing humorous quasi-journalism (let's not pretend Johnson has ever had much grasp of facts) but has no place in running a government.
But where now? Currently I am still planning to visit my father for Christmas; I don't feel there is much that would stop me. I've been following Chris Whitty's advice, not that I'm one for much socialising at the best of times anyway. But I still fear imminent announcement of a lockdown. I think pre-Christmas would be unenforceable, and have widespread non-compliance; after all, if those at the centre of government didn't bother with it last year, why should the rest of us endure another disrupted Christmas? Post-Christmas would likely be better observed, but may be too late (it's probably already too late, even though we haven't yet, at the time of writing, quite reached the Saj's 100,000 daily case figure).
And then... there were 99 Plan B rebels; it's difficult to see how Johnson could get lockdown measures through parliament unless the CRG were prepared to swallow a lot of humble pie. If we get a lockdown either before or after New Year, it would only be with opposition votes. Johnson looks like a dead man walking, it's probably only that no-one wants to replace him yet, while things look so bad. But if they did - I think we have to presume his successor would be even more swivel-eyed - could that successor reverse a lockdown? Presumably that would require U-turns on the part of more moderate (I use the term relatively) Tory MPs. It seems to me that Tory decapitation risks parliamentary stalemate even with a notional 80-seat majority.
Far from likely, but in the spirit of "what's the most batshit thing that could happen", I wonder about some form of national government under Starmer with #ge2022 coinciding with local elections in May or later in the summer.
But where now? Currently I am still planning to visit my father for Christmas; I don't feel there is much that would stop me. I've been following Chris Whitty's advice, not that I'm one for much socialising at the best of times anyway. But I still fear imminent announcement of a lockdown. I think pre-Christmas would be unenforceable, and have widespread non-compliance; after all, if those at the centre of government didn't bother with it last year, why should the rest of us endure another disrupted Christmas? Post-Christmas would likely be better observed, but may be too late (it's probably already too late, even though we haven't yet, at the time of writing, quite reached the Saj's 100,000 daily case figure).
And then... there were 99 Plan B rebels; it's difficult to see how Johnson could get lockdown measures through parliament unless the CRG were prepared to swallow a lot of humble pie. If we get a lockdown either before or after New Year, it would only be with opposition votes. Johnson looks like a dead man walking, it's probably only that no-one wants to replace him yet, while things look so bad. But if they did - I think we have to presume his successor would be even more swivel-eyed - could that successor reverse a lockdown? Presumably that would require U-turns on the part of more moderate (I use the term relatively) Tory MPs. It seems to me that Tory decapitation risks parliamentary stalemate even with a notional 80-seat majority.
Far from likely, but in the spirit of "what's the most batshit thing that could happen", I wonder about some form of national government under Starmer with #ge2022 coinciding with local elections in May or later in the summer.